Ubume bezoqoqosho eMzantsi Afrika

UMzantsi Afrika ujongene nothotho lwemicelimngeni njengoko uzama ukuphucula imeko yobume yawo kwezoqoqosho.

Icandelo elijonge ubunjani bemeko yezoqoqsho yaseMzantsi Afrika (South African Economic Outlook 2018) lithi kule minyaka yakutsha nje, ukususela ngo2012, imekobume yezoqoqosho apha eMzantsi Afrika iye yawohloka ngokuphawulekayo yayokutsho kwawona mazinga aphantsi.

Oku kuwohloka kuye kwaqhubeka kubonakala jikelele yaye kuye kwabaneziphumo ezingaginyisi mathe konke-konke; eziquka ukwehla kwamandla erandi xa ithelekiswa norhwebo lwamanye amazwe, ukwehla kwamaxabiso oMzantsi Afrika kubathengi bakwamanye amazwe nokwenyuka kwamazinga abantu abangenangqesho.

Eli candelo iSouth African Economic Outlook likwadandalazise ukuba amazinga aphezulu entlupheko, intswelongqesho nokungalingani kwemivuzo kubasebenzi kuyenye yemingeni edodobalisa uqoqosho lweli. Likwabalule ulwaphulomthetho norhwaphilizo kumaziko karhulumente njengomkhwa osongela uphuhliso lweli lizwe.

Okunye okuphawulekayo okudodobalisa iimeko zezoqoqsho eMzantsi Afrika kukushokoxeka komthombo wamandla (energy supply).

Njengangoku, kwiveki ephelileyo uKhulu Pasiwe ongusomlomo kwaEskom uvakalise ukuqalisa kweli ziko kwakhona inkqubo yalo yokucinywa kombane eyaziwa njengeloadshedding.

Le nkqubo sele ikhokelela ekubeni kumke umbane ngamaxesha athile kwiindawo ngeendawo njengoko uEskom esithi uphungula uxinizelelo kuvimba wakhe.

Ukongezelela koku, kwelinye icala imfundo esisiseko yeli iyagxekwa kanobom luninzi ngokusilela kwayo ukuphuhlisa izakhono eziyimfuneko ezinokunceda abafundi ukuba babe lulutho kwezoqoqosho.

Ngaba iimeko eMzantsi Afrika zigos’okwaphukayo mpela kwezoqoqosho? Kukho umahluko omkhulu ovuyisayo ngokuphathelele kumhlahlandlela kuqoqosho lweli.

Lo mahluko ubonakale ngokucacileyo emva kokuba oothunywashe abahlola uqoqosho lwamazwe ngamazwe (Rating Agencies) uStandard & Poor noMoody’s beye bavakalisa kutshanje ukuba uMzantsi Afrika awuzukwehliselwa kwinqanaba eliphantsi njengoko bekwenziwe njalo ngeyeNkanga ka2017.

Okunye okuzisa ithemba, uMzantsi Afrika usindile ekutsityisweni umgubasi kwiWorld Government Bond Index. Oku kungagxothwa kungazisa ifuthe eliza kuphucula amandla eRandi kuze kubeke eli lizwe kwinqanaba elithenjwayo ngabatyalizimali.

Sekunjalo, ukwenyuka kwerhafu yabathengi (Vat) kujongwa njengokuzisa uxinizelelo kwiimpokotho zabathengi. Abathandi beenyembezi zikaVitoliya nabo bazonwabelayo, ngokomzekelo sele beluva olu lwamvila.

Icandelo leeNkcukachamanani laseMzantsi Afrika (Stats SA) lithi ukususela kweyoKwindla walo nyaka irhafu yeziselo zobhelulomsele necuba yenyuke phantse ngesibini ekhulwini (1.6%) ngelixa ibhiya yona kulindeleke ukuba ekupheleni kwalo nyaka umiyo ibe sele iqabele ngaphaya kwesibhozo ekhulwini (8,0%).

Oku kuntinga kwezi rhafu kuquka neyokutya kuyarhanelwa ziingcali zoqoqosho ukuba ifuthe lazo kumaxabiso okutya liza kuqhubeka livakala. Nangona kunjalo, kukwavakaliswe ngamanye amajelo ukuba ezinye izinto amaxabiso azo aye esehla.

Ngokomzekelo, iziqhamo zehle ngaphezulu kwesibhozo ekhulwini (8,2%), isonka neesiriyeli nazo zehle ngaphezu kwesithathu ekhulwini (3,7%.)

Ukuze kuliwe ngempumelelo iziphumo nemizila yokushokoxeka kophuhliso lwezoqoqosho kufanelwe kuliwe ngamandla norhwaphilizo olugqugqisayo eburhulumenteni nakwiimalike zabucala.

Oku kuqhubeka kubhengezwa nangamaqela ezopolitiko aphikisayo. Ukongezelela koku, ezolimo jikelele kufuneka zifumane inkxaso emandla kurhulumente yaye umbandela wezopolitiko wokubuyiselwa komhlaba nawo ufanele ucaciswe ngokucacileyo indlela ozakwenzeka ngayo khonukuze abatyalizimali baqiniseke ngozinzo kwimigaqonkqubo karhulumente. Oku kufanele kubonakale nakwiimalike zemigodi okanye zezi,mbiwa.

Kwiveki ephelileyo, uMphathiswa wezezeMbiwa uMnu. Gwede Mantashe uyiqukumbele iMining Charter nto leyo ekukholelwa ukuba iza kuzisa uzinzo kwiimalike zezimbiwa kwaye ingabanefuthe elimandla ekuphuculeni uqoqosho lweli.

Njengoko le nyanga izayo yeKhala iphawula iminyaka elikhulu wazalwayo owayesakuba nguMongameli weli lizwe uTata uNelson Mandela, iBhanki yoMzantsi Afrika enguVimba ivakalise ukuba iza kukhupha imali entsha engamaphepha ngenjongo ephambili yokuhlonipha nokukhumbula iminyaka elikhulu wazalwayo uTata uNelson Mandela.

Ngokwenkcazelo ethe vetshe efumaneka kwiwebhusayithi yale bhanki, le mali intsha iza kuquka amaphepha iR10, R20, R50, R100 neR200.

Le bhanki ikwabhengeze ukuba nengqekembe yeR5 izakuba notshintsho oluthile apho iza kubhalwa ukuba uMandela ugqiba iminyaka elikhulu wazalwa.

Kusenjalo, irandi iyaqhubeka ithwaxwa yimfazwe yorhwebo eyenzeka phakathi kweMelika nelizwekazi iTshayina.

NgoLwesibini yehle yayakutsho kwiR13.90 xa ithelekiswa nedola nto leyo ebonisa ukwehla ngomyinge ophantse ufikelele kwisibini ekhulwini (1.92%).

*UNgunge ngumhlohli weEconomics kwiIIE Rosebank College ePitoli